Reliance Chairman Mukesh Ambani confirmed at the AGM that Jio is targeting an IPO in the first half of 2026, potentially valuing the telecom giant between $112–$154 billion. While the announcement sparked investor excitement, the share price dipped amid concerns over valuation, execution risks, and limited direct benefits for existing RIL shareholders.
New Delhi: Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) stunned investors and analysts alike by announcing at its Annual General Meeting (AGM) that Reliance Jio Platforms is on track for an initial public offering (IPO) in the first half of 2026, potentially making it India’s largest-ever stock listing.
Despite the buzz, RIL’s stock fell around 2.3%, closing at ₹1,355.45 on the Bombay Stock Exchange—prompting questions on market appetite and timing.
Key Takeaways from Ambani’s AGM Announcement
Mukesh Ambani told shareholders that “all arrangements” are underway for Jio’s IPO and promised global-scale value creation. With over 500 million subscribers, Jio has already established itself as India’s digital backbone, expanding from telecom to AI, cloud, and retail integration.
He also signaled that the IPO would provide Reliance with a fresh pool of capital to accelerate investments in technology, AI, and green energy, while strengthening its leadership in the digital economy.
Analysts Weigh In on Jio’s Market Value
Brokerages are divided but optimistic about Jio’s worth:
- Goldman Sachs: Up to $154 billion (bullish case)
- Jefferies: Around $112 billion
- Macquarie: About $123 billion
- Emkay: Roughly $121 billion
Most analysts believe the fair valuation could land in the $134–146 billion range, placing Jio among the top five listed companies in India by market capitalization.
A modest 5% stake sale could raise more than ₹50,000 crore (~$6 billion)—smashing previous IPO records in India.
Why the Stock Dipped Despite the Buzz
Despite the historic potential, Reliance’s stock slipped. Analysts point to three key reasons:
- No Direct Benefit for RIL Shareholders: Unlike the Jio Financial Services spin-off, existing shareholders won’t automatically get Jio shares. Rather than receiving Jio shares directly, investors are expected to benefit indirectly through Reliance Industries’ holding structure.
- Execution Risks: Analysts flagged uncertainties over tariff hikes, intense competition, and possible regulatory hurdles.
- Holding Company Discount: Market typically assigns lower value to subsidiaries held under large conglomerates, weighing on RIL’s stock.
As Hariprasad K, founder of Livelong Wealth, put it: “Investor enthusiasm was tempered by the absence of immediate benefits for Reliance shareholders.”
Mixed Outlook: Jio’s Risks and Opportunities
Despite short-term caution, brokerages largely remain bullish on RIL:
- Motilal Oswal has reaffirmed its “Buy” recommendation on Reliance Industries, setting a target price of ₹1,700 for the stock. The brokerage projects that Jio’s EBITDA will grow at a 19% CAGR between FY25 and FY28, reflecting strong earnings potential in the coming years.
- HSBC, Antique Broking, and JM Financial praised Reliance’s diversified bets across AI, retail, and new energy, though they noted that shareholder value creation depends on IPO structuring.
- Reports from Financial Times and Business Standard highlighted that Jio’s upcoming IPO has the potential to draw in massive global as well as domestic capital, further boosting India’s position and influence in the global financial markets.
Also Read: NARI 2025: 4 in 10 Urban Women Still Feel Unsafe in Indian Cities
What Retail Investors Should Watch
| Factor | What to Track |
|---|---|
| IPO Timeline | Expected 1H FY26, with filings possibly in 2025. |
| Shareholding Structure | No direct allocation of Jio shares to RIL holders. |
| Valuation Range | $112B – $154B, wide but bullish. |
| Execution Risks | Tariff policy, competition, regulation. |
| Analyst Targets | Many still see ₹1,600–₹1,700 for RIL shares. |
Reliance Jio’s planned IPO could redefine Indian capital markets with record figures and investor enthusiasm. While structural and valuation concerns exist, the market is responding cautiously but with optimism. For most retail investors, the question now becomes: Is this dip an opportunity, or are the challenges ahead too significant?
